Harley Davidson news - will the sales slump continue into the 2009 and 2010 model years?
The Kansas City Business Journal reports:
In the wake of lower first-quarter earnings despite higher revenue compared with last year, Harley-Davidson Inc. said Thursday that it will temporarily close some plants, reduce daily production and cut about 730 jobs.
Forbes, BusinessWeek, and many other business journals are all reporting similar news. How will this affect the 2008 year sales, and what will this do to the 2009 model line-up?
Update July 17, 2008
Harley's net falls 23% in second quarter 2008:
Harley-Davidson Inc., the iconic motorcycle-maker struggling with a weak U.S. economy, said its second-quarter profits fell 23% amid a steep drop in domestic sales.
Shipments of motorcycles didn't fall as much as the company had forecast in the spring, however, and results were better than Wall Street analysts had expected.
[snip]
Shipments of motorcycles fell 15.6% to 80,326. The reduced volumes hurt the company's operating margin, which fell to 20.1% from 23.9% a year earlier.In April, Harley-Davidson said it will significantly cut shipments of motorcycles to dealers and trim more than 700 jobs in response to a steep reduction in U.S. sales.
Harley-Davidson said then it plans to ship between 23,000 and 27,000 fewer motorcycles this year than in 2007, putting the total dealer deliveries in 2008 at no more than 307,500 units. The company maintained that forecast Thursday.
Source: Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2008
2009 Harley-Davidson Models
What will Harley-Davidson do to save costs? Will it alter plans for the 2009 model year? Will they go for damage control, or will they continue with plans already in place?
We wonder how sales of 2008 and 2009 Harley-Davidson models will fare -- better, worse, or the same. My gut tells me that the trend will continue downward as long as the economy continues to sour, the housing market declines, and credit is less plentiful than in previous years.
2010 Harley-Davidson Models
Will 2010 be even worse for Harley-Davidson? Will the 2010 Harley-Davidson models sit in dealer showrooms because buyers are staying home?
Looks like the boom is definitely over.
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About the author
Author Name
Michael Curry
Author Bio
Michael has been riding street motorcycles since 1975. He's owned and ridden everything from Hondas to Harleys with a preference for spirited sport-touring riding.
Michael is a Roadcarvin.com co-founder and serves as chief editor, scribe, staff photographer, and other things.
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Yeah, it seems to be a bust
This is looking to be a soft year for motorcycles in general, and the die-hard H-D fans are not going to be able to continue buying new Harleys forever. What happens when the next generation of cruiser riders, who are not of the "H-D or nothing" mindset, take over?
h-d or nothing
harleys are harleys there may be a bad economy in America but no company will EVER replace harley
No, but H-D can become 'irrelevant' in the marketplace.
You are right! Harley is unique, and always will be.... but they've enjoyed a long run during which their products have been in relatively high demand, and could command a premium price... and that was driven by... what? Image? Aging baby-boomer desire to live the fantasy 'biker' life? What's going to replace that lost demand when this "recession" is over?
(By the way, some really smart people are predicting that this recession won't be over until 2015... followed by sharp increases in fuel prices thereafter...)
I can just imagine what all those aging boomers are going to do with their beloved Harley-Davidsons once they enter the managed care facilities. The ensuing sell-off sure won't boost prices. I'm looking forward to picking up some sweet H-D's at bargain prices in a few years...
H-D or nothing
SO MUCH MONEY, SO LITTLE FOR IT.
Now thats the pot calling the kettle black
I guess you do get a little more for your pile of cash when you plunk down your hard-earned cash for a Duc.
Harley antique
I am one of the long time Harley riders who is ready for some changes. I am determined to ride my old 05 until they get off their ass and do something.
Old 05????? Wow that must be
Old 05????? Wow that must be rough!
Slumping sales - falling interest
I agree. Here, on a warm day, one can't drive three miles in any direction without seeing at least fifteen more-or-less identical Harley's; the thrill of being different is gone. The desire of owning the same old Hog is fading fast.
Today, riding a Harley is a lot like driving a Camry, WAY too many on the road - they're everywhere! And those '03 anniversary black and silver beauties - yuck!
I am an aging baby boomer (55) who fell into the craze back in '02 with the purchase of an all black '02 FatBoy. Then, with ten thousand dollars of chrome of engine work later, I still just had a FatBoy. As time went on, I bought two new Road Kings - and finally an Electra glide. They're all gone now.
I found myself hanging around at coffee houses, bars, and businesses that promoted bike nights all over town. I went to places I would have never hung-out at before - and probably won't again. I hung out with people I didn't know and probably don't want to know too well. Don't get me wrong - I have made three new friends in the past six years, but I might have met them anyway - we have other interests in common.
I am without a bike now, but it won't be for long. I'm looking, but I'm looking for a great bike and a great ride - I don't care much about the image thing anymore, the image has been tarnished. Rent the movie Wild Hogs to see what I mean. Good movie, funny, but an indictment on "want-to-be's" for sure. "Posers?" You bet!
If Harley doesn't compensate for the failing sixties attitude, they are doomed. Baby boomer's won't be able to buy and ride forever - especially if it's just more of the same.
Wade
You're the guy in the Wild Hogs movie...
Those of use who have been riding since we could walk have always had a Harley in our garage. Sounds to me, like your a weekend rider. Who in the world would ride to a coffee house or that fact a business fuction? You bought something you remember being cool (BAD) and at the age your at now I would guess to say you have extreme anxiety and desperation you thought a Harley would do it. As you well found out and several thousand dollars later (6) years your still the old bald, not so cool, pressured guy that a cup of espresso or Viagra could not wake up your shallow self.
Note to you:
Those that have been riding since we could walk know the difference of every Harley we see. Especially the people that have lived and breathed the life for three generations or more.
Better you stick to what you know and not what you have never lived. I am not as old as your stressed out self but I can tell you, do what every 55 year old want to be does and sit your as* in a Vette wearing your ball cap. Stay on four wheels.
As any one that has a back ground in motorcycles would say; If I have explain you would not understand.
FKAWI
(If I have to explain the name, then you sure in the hell need to stay on four wheels. As much money as you have spent on Harley's in the last 6 years buy one of those car kits. Oh you have that too.)
You can't say it much
You can't say it much better. Any guy that spends the money and has changed bikes like the guy in the WILD HOG MOVIE is looking for a solution to a deep rooted "I am a dweeb image". It's guys like that who don't ride because they love the freedom it brings or the life experience it creates. I own a 1998 heritage springer and love it. I have been looking into a new ultra because my wife is hooked and loved it when we rented an ultra in Vegas. My bike is unique and might have no choice but to have 2 bikes.
Slumping Sales
Where did anyone get the idea that buying a Harley Davidson is just buying a motorcycle. In this struggling economy it's one of the few things that we as Americans can still buy thats made in America and the profits stay here in this country.
We need to wake up and smell the coffee. We don't excel in manufacturing anymore, we can't compete with technology and the only thing we seem to excel in is space exploration. When was the last time you saw an ad in the paper that says we are now hiring astronauts. It's hard to raise a family and feed them this way. So....unless you like the thought of becoming a "third world" country we need to support companies such as Harley where the jobs and the profits stay in this country.
But that's easier said than done...
But that's easier said than done. Although I would have LOVED to get a Fat Boy, I just can't afford it. So I had to get an (cover your ears HD enthusiasts) import.
I don’t respond to the
I don’t respond to the e-mails in these chat forums, but the guy that wrote the e-mail Titled Slumping sales - falling interest needed a reminder that being a true biker, you can’t through money at it in hopes of being one. It’s a life style. And if you have to go to functions that promote want to be bikers than be the follower that you always have been. But do it in something you know about. That guy is trying to be something that he is not and never will be. It was funny to read what that guy had to say. He basically spilled his gusts out of who and what he is (loser, trying to get something back from his younger days, when my father was taking his lunch money from him).
Bottom line stay with what and who you are. But if you don’t know who, what you are or where you came from, than something must be wrong with you at age 55 (lost just as you where when you where born).
FKAWI
I have to agree with FKAWI.
I have to agree with FKAWI. Been swinging my legs over HD since the late sixties and am still going. Actually put off my hip replacement until the snow season so I can keep riding. I don't ride to be seen... could care less. I ride for me and me only. My motto is "Many Miles... Many Smiles".
Why I ride
Dad had an Indian, he passed before he could teach me how to ride, bought an 08 RK Classic, drove to the cemetery and showed it to him.
New Rider, I ride alone alot, helps me think, do not own chaps or the whole black leather look, reminds me of The Village People.
I love the bike (which I named Bernadine) and ride for myself and no one else.
My dad said when he was still alive buy an indian or a harley it dont matter, both great bikes. Stay away from the wannabes and you'll be fine.
Well the old man was right and I love riding, alittle late to the party but this party of one is having fun!
Moondog
For myself
I come from a family of Harley and Indian riders. I remember back on the family farm many years ago my grandfather and uncle riding around on their Indian cycles. This enjoyment is carried on by many of us in my family today even though it is now primarily Harleys we ride.
With me, I never seemed to have the time when I was younger to ride as I was in the military, in school, starting a career etc. Always some excuse of being to busy! So just recently (Last few years) my life has slowed down, no more traveling 3 weeks a month, so I am able to start riding and I absolutely love it! I ride for myself because I simply enjoy getting out and riding.
I also don’t mind riding with a few friends because I have found riding with others to be enjoyable as well. Getting together at the local Harley dealer for some monthly rides is also kind of cool and I find that fun. But the main point I am making here is that I did not start riding in order to join any social riding clubs or to meet other people.
No, I started riding (finally), for a much deeper reason that goes back to my family and the many many years of riding Harleys. I don’t know how to explain it, but I am sure many of you know exactly what I mean….I find it enjoyable and relaxing to get on my bike, take off and just ride all day long. I do not need anything else…except maybe my wife on the back :) I don't care what others think about me; I am not trying to impress the neighbor; I am not riding becauuse it is the "cool" thing to do. I am riding because I simply love it...no other reason!
For this “wade” character up above….the reason there is going to be a sales slump is that chumps like you are going to move on too the next fad….what ever that might be, which means that buying a Harley is not the “in” thing anymore. Harley will always be great and for those of us that have lived with them our entire life….well…you will never understand.
Moondog and tradition
Now! that's what I am talking about. Moondog and Tradition ride till the end. Like to hear those stories.
FKAWI
Re: Reason to ride
I have a 95 Custom Sportster 1200 with 28,000. I have done the basic maintenance and have not had a single major problem with her.
In all those miles I have met weekend riders who see no difference between a Honda or Yamaha or Harley as well as ex-military vets traveling cross-country with just a debit card, their Harley, and the open road.
I have seen grown men tear up at the thought of their first Harley back in 1960/70/80. From all this I can sum it as Harleys are like a spiritual conduit for some, just a bike for others.
Some people can see and others look, and you can't teach someone to see.
Harley economy
Browsing through here and thought it would be interesting to add a comment. was kicking tires at our local H-D dealer, and the salesmanger mentioned they are moving 43 per week These numbers are because they are selling all the repos they can get their hands on from Harley (Harley Finance) (I am not making this up)
why did Harley not adhere to that classic strategy of delivering deliberately less than the demand? They did do that at one time.
do you suppose they engineered that whole thing on purpose? Ever see the 70s movie with Charlton Heston, "Soylent Green" ?
The Harley Economy.
Seeing how I am now a "Baby
Seeing how I am now a "Baby Boomer" (man I hate that term) since I am 55 I guess I am supposed to look and feel old, yeah right.
I swung my leg over in 1963 and have done so ever since, did quite few of those years as a "Solo" aka Motorcycle cop/patrolman/etc. Rode some of those really fine AMF Police bikes also, also walked alot then as we were always stopping to go back and pick up something that fell off. Had ot ride a few rice burner Police bikes then as well since the HDs fell apart. Of course the Kawa's were dumping us on the asphalt at 92-98 mph quite regular as well.
HD has gone way to commercial for me, you can't even get a T-shirt w/o seeing some tennis shoe wearing no tone wanna be somewhere wearing teh same shirt. Same for the bikes, my 95 Nostalgia Heritage Softail at least has some flair about it.
HD has the mechanicals doing well now, so maybe they will start looking at creating something that appeals to bikers instead of suits in denim...
Future Prospects
I have no idea what is coming down the pike for 09 from HD. But I am truelly optimistic about HD's future in a struggling economy but only if they play their cards right. Gas prices are driving people in droves towards motorcycles and scooters as the US transitions from SuperPower to third world country. (Just wake up and look around, people)
I just purchased my second motorcycle in December (07 Softail Std). My first bike was a Honda which I rode because it was the only transportation I could afford back in the mid 80's. Now I'm older and my quest for a Harley was admittedly driven by a desire to establish some form of 'cool' long lost. I guess I fit a 'poser' profile to some degree. I don leather because I know full well what a slide on pavement would look and feel like. Poser? Seems to me its a bit of self preservation. I also wear a full face helmet which is by far the safest way to go and very 'anti-poser'. I tend to view motorcycles from a practical transportation view more than anything else. That is until I bought this Harley. Now I get a glimpse of the near religious nature of the Harley. I clearly see some great motorcycles out there that are better engineered, outstandingly equipped, and far cheaper to own. But I will not trade my Harley for one of them. I have yet to attend a HOG rally, have done only one poker run and tend to ride alone most of the time. I have no desire to follow the lemmings to Sturgis or the like or follow the masses anywhere for that matter. Riding solo is a personal event and somewhat therapeutic. I think about dying almost constantly while riding. Cagers on cell phones, the clueless young, and those driving while blind are everywhere and in such great numbers that any motorcyclist that does NOT ride with a healthy sense of fear is pleasantly ignorant. (I almost envy them) Call me a baby-boomer, poser, whatever label you want. I couldn't care less. I ride to ride. I will keep my Harley. I might add a different brand to my stable of horses if my economies permit but the Harley will remain.
Aging boomers: dangerous bikers?
Boomers are contributing to the rise in motorcycle accidents and fatalities:
Quote:
Aging baby boomers ride again -- on risky motorcycles (SacBee.com)
Harley's like Arab oil
So I been making the rounds at the stealerships and get the usual crappy treatment from HD sales reps. Gotta say if Harley has a problem its their own damn greed! HD for all their preaching about American pride, Freedom, and their usual propaganda is really starting to sound like Arab oil.
I actually had an own start screaming at me that I have know right to know what they pay for the bikes (I have the invoice prices of most of the 08 lineup from a friend), and that profit is not a crime.
No profit isn't a crime but raping your loyal customers should be. When HD expects to make 4-5 grand over dealer invoice per bike there is something wrong. I've been so turned off by this buying experience I doubt I'll ever own an F'ing harley or buell again (I've owned several of both). Harley has lost any concept of what a real biker is. THey just want to make cash like everyone else. I'll build my own before I buy another HD. F HD.
Take the recent HD action to get the government to prosecute custome bike builders for building more than one a year. The government wasn't bothering to make them call their lines production lines but thanks to HD they have to. HD benefited from the success of Jesse James and OCC than anyone. Everybody saw those awsome custom bikes and wanted their own but had to settle for a HD. Pretty low of HD...in fact its spinless an cowardly.
Hope the rest of you enjoy being raped by HD. Personally I'll cover my ass and keep my cash. Hopefully HD stock continues to drop and the company folds.